what was your % gain?

I think you ended up buying lower than i did, so i'm sure you did well

1/26/2007 12:35:58 PM

4% loss, actually.
I got in at 19.35, 20.35, 21.25, and 23.80 (in reverse order). I made up just enough with the lower end that I didn't have as huge a loss as I expected. After you posted your thoughts about it I went back in to cancel my order but it had already gone through. Oh well...no big deal. There will be others.
Still considering picking up some GOOG with the money from TRID that I sold.

1/26/2007 2:04:41 PM

If Cisco goes below 26 next week, ill probably pick some more up... sold some of mine at 28.50, good timing too.. but I think this quarter will be almost as good as last ... not that I have any inside info

I actually think todays citigroup news was a bit suspicious, considering that it pitted csco vs juniper, who I think is actually loosing more steam due to ciscos recent CRS-1 sales.

1/26/2007 6:57:01 PM

Now is the time to buy Ford and GM stocks!!!

1/28/2007 2:49:23 PM

i rode gm from 20 to 30 over about 2 months

1/28/2007 3:14:32 PM

I think Fords new CEO is going to work a bit of magic, but apparently they are not scheduled to return to profitability until 2009 - 2007 & 2008 are supposed to include more losses than seen this year...

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/01/26/ap3364860.html

1/28/2007 4:04:32 PM

Bought 254 shares of OCN @ 13.65

OCN helps banks recover on housing loans. Which should be propelling their business into the stratosphere with the current housing recession and record high loan defaults.

Now they reported earnings on friday: Earnings up 600%, Revenue up ~20%, Costs were flat. Analysts wanted to see $0.25 and OCN came in at $0.2 after a one time $0.1 money losing venture. The stock then dropped nearly 20%. I see this as a great buying opportunity because loan defaults are only just beginning, and banks and other firms wll seek out OCN.

1/29/2007 10:06:06 AM

Can some of the experts in this thread kindly explain what each of these numbers mean?

Specifically what I don't understand:

1) Vol <--What is this and how does it affect the value of the stock.
2) Mkt Cap <---Same question as before.
3) Avg Vol
4) P/E
5) F P/E
6) Beta
7) EPS

Thank you in advance!

1/29/2007 10:14:01 AM

volume shows how much/often a stock is being traded. doesn't directly correlate to price but is a indicator of activity or changing value of a stock.

mkt cap - is how 'big' the company is.... (total value I think)

1/29/2007 10:17:43 AM

Vol - the current volume of shares that have changed hands in the current session. This number will increase as the day wears on. Typically a given stock will have an average volume that it trades at. It becomes significant when the volume is considerably higher or lower than the average, which can imply all sorts of things depending on other such numbers.

Market Cap - This is the valuation of the company based on the stock price multiplied by the number of outstanding shares.

Avg Vol - see my explanation for volume... should make sense now

P/E - This is the price of a share divided by the earnings per share. Typically, the higher the number, the more the stock is overvalued, but there are many exceptions.

F P/E - or foward P/E. This is the projected P/E after projected earnings, usually based on a one year outlook.

Beta - no idea. i'd have to look it up

EPS - earnings per share. Total number of outstanding shares divided by net profit.

1/29/2007 10:22:51 AM

Sonof a bitch, TRID goes up 6% after I sell. Figures.

1/29/2007 10:25:55 AM

Ah, makes sense now.

Thanks gentlemen.

1/29/2007 10:26:13 AM

Here's investopedia's definition of Beta:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp

Quote :

"A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Also known as "beta coefficient". Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of beta as the tendency of a security's returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security's price will move with the market. A beta less than 1 means that the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta greater than 1 indicates that the security's price will be more volatile than the market. For example, if a stock's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile than the market. Many utilities stocks have a beta of less than 1. Conversely, most hi-tech Nasdaq-based stocks have a beta greater than 1, offering the possibility of a higher rate of return but also posing more risk"

1/29/2007 11:02:25 AM

More good news for TRID:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070129/trident_mover.html?.v=1

Quote :

"Trident Seen As Strong Investment Monday January 29, 12:40 pm ET Analyst Sees Trident As Better Near-Term Investment Than Genesis; Shares Surge NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Trident Microsystems Inc., a maker of chips used in digital television sets, shot up in morning trading on Monday after an analyst suggested Trident could make a better near-term investment than competitor Genesis Microchip Inc. Oppenheimer analyst Vijay Rakesh suggested that Genesis may report third-quarter results that land in the low-end of guidance, and added that investors may want to consider investing in competitor Trident. "We believe Trident shares appear richly valued on (a price-to-sales ratio), or cash, however, we believe the company is well outperforming its peers across all metrics," Rakesh wrote in a note to investors. "We would rotate into Trident in the near term as it offers up a better investment vehicle with strong market share gains, discount valuations and upside to (Wall Street's) top-line consensus estimate in our opinion." Shares of Trident Microsystems, which have traded between $14.85 and $31.49 over the last year, rose $1.11, or 5.5 percent, to $21.48 in morning trading on the Nasdaq. Genesis shares rose 4 cents to $9.84 on the Nasdaq."

1/29/2007 1:09:12 PM

I still might grab some GOOG before their earnings release...

1/29/2007 3:12:13 PM

SUNW is a long term pick for me. I really want to get in, and probably will when i exit one of my other positions.

Under the new CEO the company has been able to start a long process of rebuilding itself. The market crash of 2000-2002 left Sun in shambles, with McNealy unable to do anything but badmouth MSFT. Their recent return to profitability was no stroke of luck. Now, focusing on the client, cost cutting, R&D, Sun is building a company that in 5 years will command the attention of Wall Street.

1/30/2007 9:28:10 AM

TRID fell back to 21... stopped out again.

so now, do i wait an re-enter if it drops, or go ahead and pick up some SUNW?

1/30/2007 10:00:13 AM

once the M&A news + decent earnings announcements settle, we will likely see that correction -- seems like it will come mid February.

1/30/2007 10:11:00 AM

some pretty good references here - not the full monty, but not a bad start:

http://www.thestreet.com/_nasdaq/newsanalysis/businessinsurance/10332354.html

1/30/2007 10:37:28 AM

Windows Vista goes on sale worldwide, MSFT stock drops a bit.

1/30/2007 11:25:34 AM

picked up 520 shares of SUNW @ 6.40

1/30/2007 1:18:51 PM

OBCHX has been kickin a$$

1/30/2007 5:32:33 PM

Anything interesting going on today?

1/31/2007 9:41:15 AM

Stock-Picker Showdown: Blodget vs. Cramer
January 30, 2007, 8:22 am
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/stock-picker-showdown-blodget-vs-cramer/

Quote :

"Henry Blodget has some harsh words for James Cramer, the popular market pundit who hosts CNBC’s “Mad Money” show. Writing in a column for Slate, Mr. Blodget, the former Internet analyst, calls Mr. Cramer “perhaps the worst thing to happen to the financial security of average Americans since the crumbling of the Social Security system”. And that’s before he really gets going. In an aside to his column, Mr. Blodget mentions that the Mad Money Machine, a blog that reviews Mr. Cramer’s stock recommendations, calculated that Mr. Cramer’s stock picks returned 0.2 percent in 2006, as compared with last year’s 22.5 percent from a portfolio of passive index funds. But that apparently is not the real problem, according to Mr. Blodget, who argues that, given the poor odds that the amateur investor already faces in speculating on stocks, Mr. Cramer’s strategy offers mom-and-pop stock pickers too much risk with too little reward. (We would also point readers to last year’s working paper from students at the Kellogg School of Management, which concluded that buying Mr. Cramer’s stock picks was a losing proposition.) Mr. Blodget goes on to concede that, as sheer entertainment, Mr. Cramer’s show is “mesmerizing reality TV.” He also takes pains to say that Mr. Cramer is “smart.” In the end, Mr. Blodget seems to believe that warning about Mr. Cramer’s advice is a pointless task: “The more I thought about Cramer, the more I realized that pointing out that he gives terrible investment advice would be like pointing out that the sun rises.” The excoriation by the former Merrill Lynch research analyst, who was sued by regulators and private investors for hyping research to bolster the fortunes of the firm’s banking clients, and ultimately barred from the securities industry, is not without some irony. Mr. Blodget, who recently published “The Wall Street Self-Defense Manual: A Consumer’s Guide to Intelligent Investing”, has been the subject of some bitter opinion pieces. A few weeks ago, MarketWatch’s Wall Street columnist, David Weidner, expressed ire over Mr. Blodget’s recent punditry. Mr. Weidner said that it was a “sign of the apocalypse” that Mr. Blodget is allowed to comment on bad stock-pickers, adding that “Blodget himself lost a bundle in tech stocks.”"

Also:
Sad Money? Cramer’s Stock-Picking Prowess In Question
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/03/24/sad-money-cramers-stock-picking-prowess-in-question/

1/31/2007 9:50:29 AM

Quote :

"Mr. Cramer’s stock picks returned 0.2 percent in 2006"

1/31/2007 9:57:00 AM

I'll give him this-- I read his book, and his advice is sound (although nothing a million other books don't already say), he's just really bad at stock picking.

Hell, If you short a stock that he mentions at that moment and cover it the next day or two when the price retreats to where it was, %5 gain is almost guaranteed.

1/31/2007 10:04:24 AM

TIE and GOOG are both on their way up.
*keeps fingers crossed for GOOG*

1/31/2007 10:09:30 AM

*keeps fingers crossed for TIE*

(still down 10%)

1/31/2007 10:16:21 AM

http://tinyurl.com/2qzs8u
Good news for GE: $1-billion worth of orders for "power-generation and water processing" projects in Saudia Arabia.

1/31/2007 10:18:15 AM

I don't know what the deal is with TIE, but...shit.

1/31/2007 10:29:28 AM

Bobby, just a thought. Remember earlier we were thinking that Vista's release might be good for STX? Now's the time where we'll find out...
edit: SNDK is down a good bit today. Might be a buy sometime soon if it keeps going down, with Vista just being released. Flash is going to be very important in the near future, at least that's what I think.

[Edited on January 31, 2007 at 12:42 PM. Reason : ]

1/31/2007 12:38:16 PM

I agree... although we probably won't know how much it will affect STX until the next quarter, but I think it'll be a few months before Vista really starts selling.

And I think solid state storage will grow and grow. SNDK is certainly a stock that I'm watching closely. the current drop, i believe is just noise. Sure, the prices are dropping based on the current oversupply of NAND flash, but that can change anytime (like how DRAM fell drastically in the mid 90's and then skyrocketed a year later), and demand should continue to grow, as more and more consumer products are released that use flash.

1/31/2007 12:56:29 PM

good day today

TIE up 4.08%
SUNW up 3.27%
OCN up 1.29%
SPY up 0.66%
IFN down 0.85%

1/31/2007 4:02:46 PM

Online savings rate jumps to 6%
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/29/pf/online_savings/index.htm?postversion=2007012905

1/31/2007 4:14:36 PM

alright, i think it's time to leave ING, that's enough to justify the hassle.

1/31/2007 4:15:42 PM

Goog beats expectations, stock plummets.

1/31/2007 4:22:41 PM

^^yeah i just saw that, and just opened and deposited my existing savings like 20 days ago

time to put more into savings...

1/31/2007 5:49:17 PM

GOOG only beat earnings estimates because of tax benefits (seemingly non-recurring)

GOOG's revenue was in line and didn't blow anything away

1/31/2007 5:57:53 PM

actually that hsbc rate is only until apr 30th

1/31/2007 6:06:20 PM

^ eh, then it's not worth the hassle after all

^^ GOOG up 15 bucks in pre-market.

2/1/2007 9:26:13 AM

roaring start already -- this shit has got to correct sometime

2/1/2007 9:51:53 AM

yeah, i've been talking slowdown since august....

and it still ain't happened yet.

2/1/2007 10:29:29 AM

Alright TIE, let's keep getting on up there....

In other news, GILD is flying, after reporting a quarterly loss. It's been on my watch list too.

2/1/2007 10:48:06 AM

what i said in this thread

http://www.brentroad.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=378159&page=36#9730211

Quote :

"here is me speculating on what all is going on: right now is end of year selloff - many are taking profits there will also be a selloff in January from those who had gains and do not want to sell in '06 for tax reasons (including a selloff in emerging markets). then there should be a run up through 4th Quarter earnings, and an ensuing selloff with sector rotation (i.e. money moving into healthcare) followed by volatility starting in the spring, going into the summer - with the summer doldrums feeling a lot like last year's (less momentum driven, and more of a stock picker's market) followed by a relatively strong second half (led by emerging markets) if we see an unseasonably strong September, it may hint at a bull market in '08 ...again, this is just me speculating"

2/1/2007 11:52:35 AM

I am fairly new to investing and have followed Cramer for a while now, more as an educational tool rather than to picking stocks. He has suggested VFC for purchase and I am strongly considering it. Is this a wise move? Also can someone explain the tax benefits of keeping a stock longer? (or in other words why is it expensive to be a day trader?)

2/1/2007 2:19:05 PM

You save on fees, plus as far as taxes go, you'll pay long term capital gains tax (max 15% ?) if you hold greater than a year.

2/1/2007 2:23:45 PM

VFC popped up a couple of times in my research but I didn’t like them – consumer products don’t fit my approach at this time. They just paid a 0.8% dividend and announced that they will buy Eagle Creek, a great company.

BTW, another great source for learning is http://caps.fool.com/

I recently started using it, and you can pick stocks that you like, and it tracks how your picks do compared to the S&P as well as other users. You can also see which stocks are the highest rated, and why. It's completely community based, so there's no institutional bias to contend with. My name on there is btthekke, as a frame of reference. It's free, too.

2/1/2007 2:29:57 PM

^^ & ^^^ Yes, the long term capital gains rate maxes out at 15%. Short term capital gains are taxed at whatever rate your income is normally taxed at.

Keep in mind when you trade that it will probably cost you $15 - $20 to get into and out of a particular position. To make a profit, the stock has to appreciate enough to cover those costs. If you do a lot of trading, those fees can add up and eat into your profit.

There's nothing wrong with day trading per se; it's just that many day traders are looking for the quick buck and their investment 'strategies' are based on hope and hype, not sound judgement and research.

And I second the fool.

2/1/2007 2:52:22 PM

So, any idea why TIE flew up today? (and then went back down after hours?)
I was disappointed, but not surprised in GOOG's drop after watching their after-hours trading yesterday.

2/1/2007 4:34:37 PM

no idea, but kinda wishing i sold this afternoon when it was up 7.5%

i hope the trend continues.

2/1/2007 4:37:03 PM