Quote :

"and how much of that risk/loss is already priced into the stock, your opinion? "

If you mean: If and when Citi confirms an additional $8 billion in CDO writedowns will the price slide then my answer is probably but not certain.

If you mean: If and when Citi announces major losses on its SIVs, Credit Cards or additional CMBS will there be a price slide then almost certainly.

However, there is a larger issue. Could Citi make it out of this thing with no dividend cut and few additional writedowns. Sure thats possible but I don't think likely. Could Citi survive with a 50% dividend cut and a major capital infusion. I think so.

Yet, there remains a real possibility that Citi will sustain such hard losses from a multitude of sources that they need to suspend the dividend entirely and take major equity investments. Given that this is a real, albeit very small possibility I don't see why you want to have a peice of them at $30.

12/27/2007 5:44:21 PM

If you're wondering how good of an investment Circuit City might be, read this:

http://consumerist.com/338736/returning-a-defective-home-theater-to-circuit-city-makes-you-bang-your-head-against-a-wall

[Edited on December 28, 2007 at 9:49 PM. Reason : wde]

12/28/2007 9:48:49 PM

good quick read

http://tinyurl.com/2xrg97

12/30/2007 12:54:16 AM

^^ that sounds like par for the course from what I've read about Circuit City.

12/30/2007 2:02:34 AM

Yeah, that's unfortunately the case. They used to have excellent customer service until a few years ago.

I used to always go to CC over best buy, but now CC is just as bad, if not worse. These days, I mostly go to BB/CC to look at shit and then buy it online.

12/30/2007 10:54:24 AM

so, heading into 2008...are we gonna start a new thread or keep the '07 edition running?


also, what is on your watch lists?

in chronological order from when I added them:

1. Home Depot (HD)
2. Lowes (LOW)

these two operate in what pretty much amounts to a duopoly (I tend to invest in dominant player, best of breed type companies). They've both had their prices depressed by the housing debacle. I'm watching and waiting. Hopefully I won't miss the boat.

3. Cisco Systems (CSCO)

4. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) Missed the buying opportunity on this one...couldn't get the money together in time (at least not without putting in money from savings/house fund). If it drops and I have the money, count me in.

5. Coca-Cola (KO) Not quite as hot about this stock as I once was, but still on the watch list. Dominant company with worldwide market share and growth prospects. Also a consumer staple if the economy shits the bed. Pays a decent dividend, too.

6. Sadia (SDA) Brazilian company, pretty dominant player in the poultry industry. Not about to pull the trigger on it, but I keep tabs on it.

7. Boeing (BA) Great company. American manufacturing and exports are strong. Price depressed due to delays in production of the Dreamliner. Thinking about buying here.

8. Medtronic (MDT) Don't remember exactly why added this one. They do some neat stuff, but I'm obviously not on fire for them. Also skeered of healthcare stocks in this election year.

9. AT&T (T) Giant in its industry, in bed with the iPhone (which will get more and more popular as its price is reduced, although the competitors are already on the way). Also pays a nice dividend.

10. Cemex (CX) World's largest producer of concrete/cement/etc. Stands to cash in big from growth in devoloping nations. Price depressed due to U.S. housing market. Pays a pretty nice dividend. Recommended by both Motley Fool and Kiplinger's. Thinking strongly about buying here.

11. XTO Energy (XTO) Price of natural gas depressed compared to oil. One $63 share represents 66k cubic feet of natural gas--or $530 at today's prices. Thinking strongly about buying here, as well.



For that matter, let's list out current holdings:

Aflac (AFL)
Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH)
Dolby Labs (DLB)
FedEx (FDX)
Garmin (GRMN)
Altria Group (MO)
NetFlix (NFLX)
National Storm Management (NSMG)
Navteq (NVT)
Optionsxpress (OXPS)
Shuffle Master (SHFL)
Schlumberger (SLB)
Staples (SPLS)
Toyota (TM)
Vanguard Emerging Mkts ETF (VWO)

[Edited on December 30, 2007 at 3:06 PM. Reason : yes, NSMG is a pink sheeter...i got burned on it getting greedy, but only on a $50 buy in.]

[Edited on December 30, 2007 at 3:07 PM. Reason : might play around and try to make a few bucks on NSMG's volatility just for fun]

12/30/2007 2:58:17 PM

Yeah, Let's get a new thread started.

12/30/2007 3:00:18 PM

There's one trading day left. Should we vie for the title of T-Dub Investor Extraordinaire?

12/30/2007 3:05:47 PM

I keep reading things about aoe. Thinking about picking some up today.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/12/31/best-stock-for-2008-american-eagle-outfitters.aspx

12/31/2007 2:11:00 PM