^ it remains an open question if a model advancement can lead to accelerating progress with no humans in the loop. Purely in compute. This was always the idea.

Now that AI has gone commercial no one is holding their breath for this anymore. Without that, we will still make better reasoning models, create continuous learning feedback, integrate robotics, etc. And the chips will keep flowing until China invades Taiwan.

I haven't given up on the idea myself. But the future is probably going to be much more boring than AGI 2027.

9/17/2025 11:34:35 PM

this thread is 16 years old. let's see what this chart looks like in another 16 years.

[Edited on September 18, 2025 at 10:24 AM. Reason : y'all remember when the turing test was relevant?]

9/18/2025 10:22:45 AM