It's the GOP's choice to poll them, not sure why they'd care about the input of folks who can't vote in the General. Maybe a lot of their donors are retired there.

3/12/2012 3:46:57 PM

11/28/2011

Mitt Romney - 1,197,147
Ron Paul - 601,427
Herman Cain - 398,006
Newt Gingrich - 190,607
Michele Bachmann - 272,536
Rick Perry -171,611


CAIN drop out.

12/4/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,205,182
Ron Paul - 608,683
Herman Cain - 397,384
Newt Gingrich - 202,124
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,952; Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,429
Rick Perry -171,470



12/7/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,208,752
Ron Paul -613,709
Herman Cain - 395,256
Newt Gingrich - 206,700
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,946
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,388
Rick Perry -171,472 up


2/11/2012


Barack Obama - 25,134,819
Mitt Romney - 1,468,126
Ron Paul - 852,639
Herman Cain - 377,932
Newt Gingrich - 278,934
Michele Bachmann (4prez) -457,319
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 269,951
Rick Perry -180,779
Rick Santorum - 125,861



3/10/2012


Mitt Romney: 1,522,033
Ron Paul: 902,980
Rick Santorum: 173,538
Newt Gingrich: 294,691


3/12/2012

Barack Obama: 25,529,666
Mitt Romney: 1,525,011
Ron Paul: 905,040
Rick Santorum: 174,662
Newt Gingrich: 295,340



3/18/2012


Barack Obama: 25,646,978
Mitt Romney: 1,536,840
Ron Paul: 912,968
Rick Santorum: 182,071
Newt Gingrich: 296,242

3/18/2012 6:26:34 PM

3/19/2012 4:23:27 PM

11/28/2011

Mitt Romney - 1,197,147
Ron Paul - 601,427
Herman Cain - 398,006
Newt Gingrich - 190,607
Michele Bachmann - 272,536
Rick Perry -171,611


CAIN drop out.

12/4/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,205,182
Ron Paul - 608,683
Herman Cain - 397,384
Newt Gingrich - 202,124
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,952; Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,429
Rick Perry -171,470



12/7/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,208,752
Ron Paul -613,709
Herman Cain - 395,256
Newt Gingrich - 206,700
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,946
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,388
Rick Perry -171,472 up


2/11/2012


Barack Obama - 25,134,819
Mitt Romney - 1,468,126
Ron Paul - 852,639
Herman Cain - 377,932
Newt Gingrich - 278,934
Michele Bachmann (4prez) -457,319
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 269,951
Rick Perry -180,779
Rick Santorum - 125,861



3/10/2012


Mitt Romney: 1,522,033
Ron Paul: 902,980
Rick Santorum: 173,538
Newt Gingrich: 294,691


3/12/2012

Barack Obama: 25,529,666
Mitt Romney: 1,525,011
Ron Paul: 905,040
Rick Santorum: 174,662
Newt Gingrich: 295,340



3/18/2012


Barack Obama: 25,646,978
Mitt Romney: 1,536,840
Ron Paul: 912,968
Rick Santorum: 182,071
Newt Gingrich: 296,242


3/26/2012


Barack Obama: 25,861,253 likes
Mitt Romney: 1,548,753 likes
Ron Paul: 922,128 likes
Rick Santorum: 186,345 likes
Newt Gingrich: 296,355 likes

3/26/2012 2:10:13 PM

Holy shit dude nobody cares, stop posting these.

3/26/2012 2:41:22 PM

nobody cares what you say either, but the usual response is simply ignoring you.

pretend for the rest of the afternoon that you arent 12 years old.

3/26/2012 2:47:57 PM

Quote :

"Holy shit dude nobody cares, stop posting these."

Nobody cares that rick santorum isn't liked but somehow winning state primaries.

Not a care was given.

3/26/2012 3:16:36 PM

No, I'm serious, how many times do you have to post these updates with nobody replying (except to troll you about something broader than facebook likes) before you get the hint that you're the only person who thinks facebook likes mean anything and are remotely interesting?

[Edited on March 26, 2012 at 4:26 PM. Reason : .]

3/26/2012 4:26:03 PM

The point of this thread is to analyze candidate likes over time on facebook.

Facebook has a good sample of the population: moms, dads, brothers, sisters, religious, atheism, young people, old people.

Since you admit nobody cares about facebook likes, it is a great indicator since people aren't interested in manipulating the figures because there is no reward or recognition for it.


To answer your question of "how many times do you have to post these updates", I will update this thread on important dates or when I remember. This will continue upto the elections in November.

To answer your question of "Why don't you just keep these numbers to yourself", I will tell you that people on the Ron Paul campaign are very interested in these number and I often link this thread and broadcast it to many people.

This thread plays an important role in 1) advertising the site to new members, which we're not seeing a lot of new members because fred doesn't have a free trial and it costs money to sign up to the site. People don't want to pay $5 to sign up to a site they can get elsewhere for free 2) I can update the figures from any computer or phone at any time, and 3) it has timestamps to prove I didn't make up the numbers.

To answer your question of "why do I post when nobody is replying", the data has not been fully collected. There is no controversy or a reason to reply in this thread yet. People are more than welcome to plot these numbers on a graph to illustrate the rate of incline over time, but I'm not going to do that until all the data is collected. The reason nobody replies is because the experiment is not over.

3/26/2012 4:59:03 PM

Quote :

"Facebook has a good sample of the population: moms, dads, brothers, sisters, religious, atheism, young people, old people."

If you actually want people to read this maybe you can prove that Facebook is an acceptable cross section of the voting society as a whole. Otherwise, this whole futile exercise is just noise in the background.

Of course you won't do that, because you're an internet troll who makes shitty pizza.

3/26/2012 9:09:32 PM

11/28/2011

Mitt Romney - 1,197,147
Ron Paul - 601,427
Herman Cain - 398,006
Newt Gingrich - 190,607
Michele Bachmann - 272,536
Rick Perry -171,611


CAIN drop out.

12/4/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,205,182
Ron Paul - 608,683
Herman Cain - 397,384
Newt Gingrich - 202,124
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,952; Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,429
Rick Perry -171,470



12/7/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,208,752
Ron Paul -613,709
Herman Cain - 395,256
Newt Gingrich - 206,700
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,946
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,388
Rick Perry -171,472 up


2/11/2012


Barack Obama - 25,134,819
Mitt Romney - 1,468,126
Ron Paul - 852,639
Herman Cain - 377,932
Newt Gingrich - 278,934
Michele Bachmann (4prez) -457,319
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 269,951
Rick Perry -180,779
Rick Santorum - 125,861



3/10/2012


Mitt Romney: 1,522,033
Ron Paul: 902,980
Rick Santorum: 173,538
Newt Gingrich: 294,691


3/12/2012

Barack Obama: 25,529,666
Mitt Romney: 1,525,011
Ron Paul: 905,040
Rick Santorum: 174,662
Newt Gingrich: 295,340



3/18/2012


Barack Obama: 25,646,978
Mitt Romney: 1,536,840
Ron Paul: 912,968
Rick Santorum: 182,071
Newt Gingrich: 296,242


3/26/2012


Barack Obama: 25,861,253 likes
Mitt Romney: 1,548,753 likes
Ron Paul: 922,128 likes
Rick Santorum: 186,345 likes
Newt Gingrich: 296,355 likes


3/31/2012



Barack Obama: 25,891,042 likes
Mitt Romney: 1,553,951 likes
Ron Paul: 925,379 likes
Rick Santorum: 187,809 likes
Newt Gingrich: 296,270 likes
Herman Cain - 375,051 likes
Michele Bachmann (4prez) -454,907 likes
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 268,851 likes
Rick Perry -180,386 likes

As you can see, Cain, Bachmann, Rick Perry have a negative increase. Obama, Mitt, Ron Paul has a positive increase. There is no way for Ron Paul to be out of the nomination race, and there is no way on earth that Santorum is in second place, competing head to head with romney.

Even newt is negatively increasing.

[Edited on March 31, 2012 at 2:17 PM. Reason : .]

3/31/2012 2:15:59 PM

Wait, so they're electing delegates based on Facebook fans now?

4/3/2012 9:47:55 AM

Quote :

"negative increase"

4/3/2012 10:09:40 AM

11/28/2011

Mitt Romney - 1,197,147
Ron Paul - 601,427
Herman Cain - 398,006
Newt Gingrich - 190,607
Michele Bachmann - 272,536
Rick Perry -171,611


CAIN drop out.

12/4/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,205,182
Ron Paul - 608,683
Herman Cain - 397,384
Newt Gingrich - 202,124
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,952; Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,429
Rick Perry -171,470



12/7/2011


Mitt Romney - 1,208,752
Ron Paul -613,709
Herman Cain - 395,256
Newt Gingrich - 206,700
Michele Bachmann (4prez) - 458,946
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 272,388
Rick Perry -171,472 up


2/11/2012


Barack Obama - 25,134,819
Mitt Romney - 1,468,126
Ron Paul - 852,639
Herman Cain - 377,932
Newt Gingrich - 278,934
Michele Bachmann (4prez) -457,319
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 269,951
Rick Perry -180,779
Rick Santorum - 125,861



3/10/2012


Mitt Romney: 1,522,033
Ron Paul: 902,980
Rick Santorum: 173,538
Newt Gingrich: 294,691


3/12/2012

Barack Obama: 25,529,666
Mitt Romney: 1,525,011
Ron Paul: 905,040
Rick Santorum: 174,662
Newt Gingrich: 295,340



3/18/2012


Barack Obama: 25,646,978
Mitt Romney: 1,536,840
Ron Paul: 912,968
Rick Santorum: 182,071
Newt Gingrich: 296,242


3/26/2012


Barack Obama: 25,861,253 likes
Mitt Romney: 1,548,753 likes
Ron Paul: 922,128 likes
Rick Santorum: 186,345 likes
Newt Gingrich: 296,355 likes


3/31/2012



Barack Obama: 25,891,042 likes
Mitt Romney: 1,553,951 likes
Ron Paul: 925,379 likes
Rick Santorum: 187,809 likes
Newt Gingrich: 296,270 likes
Herman Cain - 375,051 likes
Michele Bachmann (4prez) -454,907 likes
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 268,851 likes
Rick Perry -180,386 likes

4/10/2012

Barack Obama: 25,927,604 likes
Mitt Romney: 1,576,802 likes
Ron Paul: 931,102 likes
Rick Santorum: 189,569 likes
Newt Gingrich: 295,834 likes
Herman Cain - 374,562 likes
Michele Bachmann (4prez) -454,646 likes
Michele Bachmann(gov't) - 269,095 likes
Rick Perry -180,057 likes

4/10/2012 5:59:15 PM

Ron Paul passed the 1,000,000 likes mark on Facebook 2 hours ago

6/19/2012 1:02:32 PM

neat-o

6/19/2012 1:18:20 PM

Well, shit, Obama has over 15x the likes as Romney. If this thread had any point whatsoever, Obama has zero chance of losing the election in November.

6/19/2012 1:21:04 PM

I, for one, am glad pizza guy decided to track this. I feel his methodology is far more convincing and a more representative cross section of the American voting population than any Gallup poll.

[Edited on June 19, 2012 at 1:41 PM. Reason : Autocorrect]

6/19/2012 1:41:08 PM

Likes are a uni-directional indicator that can be tracked by time initial to time final if all the people involved are applied to the same catalysts.

In this instance, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann, and Perry all started with a relatively low number of likes compared to the amount of "likes" possible (GIVEN: Obama has 29million likes, we can assume 29million likes are possible and realistic)

We can assume, since the initial number of likes are so small compared to their potential over time, that the initial amount of likes each one of them has is negligent.

Since we are mainly looking at the RATE of increase, or the change of likes over time, dL/dt, the initial number of likes are negligent in this way also.

All had an initial starting point: The start of the Republican Nomination process.
All had been applied with National Media Attention in the same way (but not equally, especially Ron Paul has been blacked out by the media).
Only one candidate was chosen by the media as the winner from the beginning (Mitt) so it makes sense that Mitt has more likes than Ron Paul since many people in this country still hold trust in the media and dont know what's going on other than what they hear on the news.


The anomaly here is that Ron Paul's daily rates of increases have not slowed down or increased over time. They have remained surprisingly consistant of about 1200 likes per day for 8 months now, with a few 'bursts' when Ron Paul is mentioned or makes a presence on a News segment for an interview.

I most likely typed all this in vain because 1) tl;dr. 2) too complicated for non-mathematicians to understand.

[Edited on June 19, 2012 at 2:56 PM. Reason : .]

6/19/2012 2:53:43 PM

I think what your brilliant mathematical reasoning failed to capture is the fact that the demographic most represented on facebook is also the demographic most likely to support Paul among the GOP candidates and is also the demographic least likely to show up to polls.

(Young people)


edit: If you wanted something to more accurately display relative momentum, you might want to consider tracking the monthly percent change in likes, rather than just the raw number which is of course largely a reflection of the demographic alignment between facebook and a candidate.


[Edited on June 19, 2012 at 3:01 PM. Reason : .]

6/19/2012 2:56:47 PM

Quote :

"I think what your brilliant mathematical reasoning failed to capture is the fact that the demographic most represented on facebook is also the demographic most likely to support Paul among the GOP candidates and is also the demographic least likely to show up to polls. (Young people)"

Not sure how many times we can prove this claim is false before you believe it. It's very naive.

Quote :

"edit: If you wanted something to more accurately display relative momentum, you might want to consider tracking the monthly percent change in likes"

Do you ever read what I type ?
"Since we are mainly looking at the RATE of increase, or the change of likes over time, dL/dt, the initial number of likes are negligent in this way also."

Okay, my head hurts from the stupidity. I can't go on.



[Edited on June 19, 2012 at 3:46 PM. Reason : .]

6/19/2012 3:39:25 PM

You've not even come close to proving anything

The facebook pop isn't remotely close to being representative of the US population so the rest is moot.

[Edited on June 19, 2012 at 3:52 PM. Reason : ]

6/19/2012 3:42:57 PM

Quote :

"I can't go on."

if this thread has taught us anything, it's that you will.

6/19/2012 3:47:29 PM

Quote :

"You've not even come close to proving anything "

I certainly have proven that Ron Paul isn't out of the race and he is not in last place like the media and the media sheeple like to report.

[Edited on June 19, 2012 at 3:55 PM. Reason : is]

6/19/2012 3:53:29 PM

Well, you haven't.

You also "gave up" a few weeks ago

6/19/2012 3:57:39 PM

Avril Lavigne has 31,389,951 page likes. Clearly she could defeat Obama if the media gave her a shot.

6/19/2012 3:57:51 PM

How many Mr. Joshua does it take to screw in a lightbulb?




Answer: Potato.

6/19/2012 4:08:42 PM

Now you're just showing off your anti-sk8er boi bigotry. You make me sick.

6/19/2012 4:35:34 PM