What trump has going for him is his unpredictability. So you could say hey he said 2 more weeks to give them false sense of security. Similar to Israels attack 9 days ago when US had talks scheduled. Or perhaps they had intelligence of Iran moving stuff out of attack site, or knew nothing would come of negotiations. Etc etc etc. I feel as though anything other than today was the 20+ year status quo, and Trump decided to give a real world use of gbu 57 ordinance, and change the stale nature of things. Might be a good idea to develop a bomb that weighs less than 30k pounds, only delivered by US, etc. Now is the time for this to happen, from a US POV

6/22/2025 1:00:10 AM

Quote :

"But who knows about all those ifs and how Trump and Co might have fucked away an opportunity to avoid this (aside from pulling out of the nuclear deal in his first term) "

I’m not even entertaining these Ifs. Has there been any credible evidence that Iran was building nuclear bombs? Has anyone outside the Trump and Netanyahu admins even made the claim? Not a chance in hell I’ll ever take anything from these admins as truth without some type of verification. The Iranians were probably enriching uranium, but I’m betting there is no evidence of weaponizing it.

I have not listened to all of Trump’s address and I don’t really go looking for the things Netanyahu is saying in speeches/media, but if you read between the lines, they are telegraphing they don’t really need concrete evidence to justify bombing. It’s why Trump spent several minutes of his speech reminding us about all the bad things Iranian proxies have done (IEDs, etc). They are bad guys and we are good guys, that’s their play. It will work. It helps that any evidence to disprove their claims of bomb making are probably smoking craters at this point.

6/22/2025 5:35:17 AM

Good news guys we’re not at war with Iran

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/vance-says-us-not-war-iran-re-war-irans-nuclear-program-rcna214329

6/22/2025 12:58:22 PM

Quote :

"So…if Iran really was imminently reaching breakout for a nuke, and we diligently exhausted our options with competent efforts at diplomacy, then I support striking them. I’d do that before I allowed them to become a nuclear power. But who knows about all those ifs and how Trump and Co might have fucked away an opportunity to avoid this (aside from pulling out of the nuclear deal in his first term)"

Who knows? Really? Satanyahu has been saying Iran is months away from a nuke every few years for the last 30 years.

Israel (and their proxies within the US government), and specifically, Satanyahu, control US foreign policy. That's the reality.

6/22/2025 2:24:02 PM

https://youtu.be/3Q08a7BI9XI?si=lEveVDIKcBrHPTOB

7:15

6/22/2025 7:48:23 PM

Quote :

"What trump has going for him is his unpredictability. So you could say hey he said 2 more weeks to give them false sense of security. Similar to Israels attack 9 days ago when US had talks scheduled. Or perhaps they had intelligence of Iran moving stuff out of attack site, or knew nothing would come of negotiations. Etc etc etc. I feel as though anything other than today was the 20+ year status quo, and Trump decided to give a real world use of gbu 57 ordinance, and change the stale nature of things. Might be a good idea to develop a bomb that weighs less than 30k pounds, only delivered by US, etc. Now is the time for this to happen, from a US POV "

I think this is missing the point. You don’t bomb another sovereign foreign country Period. This is a major violation— it’s a declaration of war. It makes Americans fair game now. Obama shouldn’t really have done it to get bin laden even but they built up good will before doing that and laid ground work. Trump shouldn’t have done it for sulemani. It actually gives the upper hand to Iran because they know America doesn’t want a war but they can force us into one now. They can activate their mutual defense pact with Russia.

But outside of this, it’s clear to everyone that Netanyahu forced or tricked trump into this. It makes the US look like a joke. We have no control over our foreign policy. Putin and China are licking their lips now.

6/22/2025 9:14:55 PM

Quote :

"I’m not even entertaining these Ifs. Has there been any credible evidence that Iran was building nuclear bombs? Has anyone outside the Trump and Netanyahu admins even made the claim?"

Yes, there is clear and plain evidence they are trying to build bombs. You don't enrich uranium-235 to 60+% if you aren't trying to build a bomb. Power plants use 3-5%, tops. The only use for anything that high is bombs, period.

I'm not saying they were on a breakout path, or "a couple months away," but they were *very plainly* trying to build bombs. That's not to say that this admin didn't fuck this up. But, I also don't even remotely trust this Iranian regime with nuclear weapons at all. It was always coming to this at some point

[Edited on June 22, 2025 at 9:42 PM. Reason : ]

6/22/2025 9:42:11 PM

6/22/2025 10:31:33 PM

^^You could enrich to 60% as a provocative political statement (cry for help) to the world regarding a certain other State continually sabotaging your domestic nuclear energy program.

6/22/2025 11:09:50 PM

I heard that Iran recently bought aluminum tubes and yellowcake.

6/23/2025 8:05:54 AM

^^
That seems to be exactly what Iran was going. It’s been 10 years since trump scrapped the Iran deal.

6/23/2025 8:22:24 AM

Just one assessment so far

Quote :

"CNN Exclusive: Early US intel suggests American strikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear sites and likely only set the program back by months, sources say. https://cnn.it/4nh2JUF "

6/24/2025 3:10:58 PM

Assumed fake news. Iran was wiped off the map. It is now called the Desert of America.

6/24/2025 3:40:27 PM

Quote :

"^^You could enrich to 60% as a provocative political statement (cry for help) to the world regarding a certain other State continually sabotaging your domestic nuclear energy program."

And monkeys might fly out of my butt, too. I'm not holding my breath on it.

Look, this isn't the kind of thing that you do just for shits. You don't turn the centrifuges on over night in a fit of rage and go from 5% enrichment to 60%. It's an incredibly expensive, difficult, and dangerous operation that takes a non-trivial amount of time (think: years). You don't do that as a "provocative political statement" because you're butthurt about Israel slapping your non-existent nuclear power plants around. You do it because you want to annihilate them.

None of this is to say that Israel's actions here are great, or that Cheeto scrapping the previous deal was a great idea. It's just to say that the notion they aren't trying to build a bomb is preposterous, when they are doing the very things you have to do to build a bomb.

6/24/2025 4:04:47 PM

It’s the reasoning that Iran has used to justify its enrichment to the international community. You don’t have to believe it, I only sorta do, but when Israel/US produce almost no evidence for their actions except the least trustworthy people on planet Earth telling you to “Trust me, Bro,” well, it makes Iran look like the rational actor here

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56743560

Trump rips up JCPOA - Iran announces it is enriching to 20%
Israel cyber attacks Natansz (conveniently when Biden is negotiating a new agreement) - Iran announces it is enriching to 60%

We still have no evidence Iran can shape Uranium or build the necessary pre-detonation devices required to actually manufacture a nuclear bomb, only that they can enrich uranium.

6/24/2025 6:00:53 PM

fyi

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/25/nx-s1-5442496/what-to-know-iran-ayatollah-khamenei

6/25/2025 11:06:30 AM

Quote :

"I will continue to cross my fingers and hope the Islamic Republic of Iran falls"

1/2/2026 12:21:24 PM

Will we still be complete assholes to them afterward if it does?

[Edited on January 2, 2026 at 1:28 PM. Reason : Or will we look for constructive opportunities to support needed reforms?]

1/2/2026 1:26:58 PM

Religion has no business running a government, I don’t care what religion it is. The Islamic Republic of Iran couldn’t fail sooner

But who/what would fill that power vacuum. I’d like to think we’d get back to the Iran of the 60’s and 70’s where you couldn’t tell the difference between Iran and the US, but I doubt it.

1/2/2026 1:41:52 PM

Quote :

"But who/what would fill that power vacuum"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/01/06/pahlavi-iran-democracy-transition-planning/

[Edited on January 6, 2026 at 2:40 PM. Reason : it's time]

1/6/2026 2:40:04 PM

[Edited on January 8, 2026 at 3:24 PM. Reason : balance]

1/8/2026 3:23:49 PM

[Edited on January 8, 2026 at 9:34 PM. Reason : guess nobody cares about the oppressed people of iran if you can't blame the West or Jews]

1/8/2026 9:33:38 PM

Fox News is hyping up the "Iran is ready for a regime change!" rhetoric in preparation for when we invade in a couple months

1/8/2026 9:34:50 PM

iranians are handling this one themselves

1/8/2026 9:35:40 PM

You frequently misunderstand the purpose of political speech

I personally support the Iranian people overthrowing their tyrannical leaders, I assume 100% of TWW does do. So what is there to do discuss?

1/8/2026 10:26:55 PM

^

1/9/2026 5:17:45 AM

^^

1/9/2026 11:04:58 AM

Anytime religion stops being the head of a state, everyone wins.

1/9/2026 11:14:47 AM

We're trying to go the other way.

Although it's all false religion for show.

A review of the actions and words would lead to the conclusion that this administration is not in any appreciable way adhering to the guiding principles of New Testament Christianity.

1/9/2026 11:39:34 AM

I can't speak for others, but 90% of my posts in TSB are (poor) attempts to convince others of something. 90% of my posts in ST are to have fun talking about sports. TSB can, of course, be used to in general discuss current events, not my intent to police that. But when some make emotional posts making accusations about why some folks may talk about or not talk about events, I feel it's worthwhile tho give a note about why I, at least, do so.

My government is already anti Iran government and I'm not sure if I want myself government to get involved militarily at this time (with THIS govt especially), so I don't feel interested have anything to urge my elected officials or fellow citizens to do. I don't think the Iranian people or govt read tww (inshallah?) and I don't think anyone here has much influence over their govt.

I also don't think we should be providing military aid to Saudi Arabia. Id love to help stop the horrible genocide in Sudan but I'm not sure what to do besides military intervention (maybe we should, I don't know, start that discussion if you like).

My general position on genocide is: against
My general position on govt violently cracking down on citizens and restricting their rights: against
My general position on terrorist organizations, Islamic or otherwise: against

On the other hand, I agree the atrocities in Sudan, Yemen and the revolts/crackdowns in Iran should get media attn on the level of Gaza and Ukraine. Maybe I should write a letter to NPR or something. Despite my claim of advocating, I'm a poor advocate/activist. I'm sure, q, you do a much better job of speaking out, I admire your ability to be something well read on so many subjects and you appear to be very active in your community (NOT sarcasm).

[Edited on January 9, 2026 at 11:54 AM. Reason : E]

1/9/2026 11:53:44 AM

Quote :

"My general position on genocide is: against My general position on govt violently cracking down on citizens and restricting their rights: against My general position on terrorist organizations, Islamic or otherwise: against"

LOL! Thank you for clarifying these.

1/9/2026 12:34:44 PM

IT GOES TO THE TUNE OF "BARBARA ANN," GET IT?

1/9/2026 4:22:28 PM

^it took me a while, because I like people who weren't captured.

1/10/2026 8:42:04 AM

Quote :

"but 90% of my posts in TSB are (poor) attempts to convince others of something. 90% of my posts in ST are to have fun talking about sports"

yeah i get (and agree with) that difference between TSB and ST. i was just in a hurry to make my point in response to a post you made i'm sure you understand

Quote :

"But when some make emotional posts making accusations about why some folks may talk about or not talk about events"

ARE YOU ACCUSING ME OF BEING EMOTIONALLY ACCUSATORY HOW DAAAARE YOU I WILL BURN THIS WEB RELIC TO THE GROUND.

Quote :

"My government is already anti Iran government"

i recall seeing this argument before. i have no specific objections to it at this time.

Quote :

"I also don't think we should be providing military aid to Saudi Arabia."

years ago I had a pretty disapproving view of KSA and was critical of our military support re: yemen as well. I better understand now why KSA buys our weapons. they're not out there trying to conquer the region. they're protecting themselves against the houthis (and iran by proxy). i don't know the SA/yemen history nearly as well as i (now) know the israel/palestine conflict history, but that shit goes back a long time (as does most arab tribal conflict), and I'm not convinced SA is in the wrong on that this issue as much as I assumed (was led to believe) back then. the Khashoggi murder remains inexcusable imo, but that doesn't mean the US or any other country should have to 100% cut ties and see them as eternal bad guys from now on.

Quote :

"Id love to help stop the horrible genocide in Sudan but I'm not sure what to do besides military intervention"

I'm not sure what to do either. I wish more of us would just say "I'm not sure" more often instead of immediately checking for our blue/red talking points.

Quote :

"My general position on genocide is: against"

me too, despite what some here have EMOTIONALLY ACCUSED me of.

what's your position on people lying to you and accusing another people of genocide? my position is when I find out that somebody is lying to me and trying to deceive me, I'm inclined to figure out why and what else they may have been lying to me about. and so I did. took me a couple years to double triple quadruple check my math, but i'm pretty sure I adequately educated myself on the relevant facts.

Quote :

"I agree the atrocities in Sudan, Yemen and the revolts/crackdowns in Iran should get media attn on the level of Gaza and Ukraine."

the question is why, right? why do legacy and social media choose to focus on some things and not others? I get that we don't all have the bandwidth to care about every single conflict going on in the world and that's fine. I am still a bit surprised TWW spent basically zero time discussing the invasion of Ukraine in the months before (or after) Oct 7, but it's whatever. but why does Israel get a billion times as much attention and blame as all the rest? that's ultimately what I'm getting at. there was 100% a reasonable conversation to be had about their response to oct 7, but a reasonable conversation was not had. it was just foaming at the mouth talking points from people who were lying to the world. and anybody who questioned the Israel Bad narrative was cast as a Nazi. incessant self-righteous "I Care About Oppressed People" but only when there are Jews to be blamed it turns out.

Quote :

"Despite my claim of advocating, I'm a poor advocate/activist."

clearly I am as well. turns out I'm too much of an INTJ autist to charm people into believing me. and although I'm familiar with the dark arts of persuasion I can't bring myself to follow that path.

Quote :

"I admire your ability to be something well read on so many subjects and you appear to be very active in your community (NOT sarcasm)"

thx bro (NOT sarcasm)


so anyways, I happen to be personally invested in the inevitable fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran (and yes there are personally relevant reasons for that as well) but I understand if y'all aren't. I believe Reza Pahlavi will be accepted by the people of Iran and lead them back to a secular, democratic system of governance that will live in peace with its neighbors. I dearly hope that day comes soon, lest my children have to grow up in a world with the Islamic Regime still in power.

at the end of the day i'm mostly just asking/suggesting/pleading y'all to take Ryan's advice seriously

1/10/2026 8:30:23 PM

I wonder what Trump will do in Iran now...he clearly set an ultimatum and the regime is still killing protestors

1/10/2026 10:12:13 PM

I feel like we see news of Iranian revolution every few years. Hope it’s real this time. Selfishly the Instagram tourists going to Iran make it look amazing

1/10/2026 10:20:07 PM

^^Feel like he's most likely to just let them dangle (the protestors) and keep teasing that he has their back while they get killed.

1/11/2026 8:21:58 AM

Seems like mostly what is happening. Witkoff it apparently communicating with Iranian officials. Vance prefers negotiation to bombing. Need more Starlink in Iran

1/13/2026 12:34:13 AM

Lol, "MIGA"

[Edited on January 13, 2026 at 1:34 PM. Reason : Hope we fight ethiopia soon. MEGA!!]

1/13/2026 1:26:10 PM

Help is not on the way.

Keep dying a little harder to achieve my policy goals!

1/13/2026 1:34:55 PM