Quote :

"I wonder, too, what exactly of Khameini's agenda Ahm is against....interesting."

There has been friction between the Ayatollah and Ahmadinijad (sp?) for a loooong time. I wouldn't go so far as to characterize them as enemies or anything, but they definitely don't always see eye to eye, and there is an element of friction between them.

[Edited on October 13, 2011 at 11:03 PM. Reason : ]

10/13/2011 11:03:23 PM

With regards to the plot:
Some analysts skeptical of alleged Iranian plot
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/12/us/analysis-iran-saudi-plot/index.html


And with regards to ^, here is an example:
Iranian president criticizes student's flogging
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4134114,00.html (student was flogged for 'insulting' Ahmedinejad)

10/14/2011 12:04:59 PM

Cultural revolution part 2 or are protests being overly sensationalized

9/22/2022 7:11:02 AM

^ maybe both?

I think it’s more than a coincidence this is all happening during nuclear negotiations

9/22/2022 1:48:51 PM

It feels like Khamenei's time might be up.

10/7/2024 1:24:13 PM

watch this space

11/16/2024 9:54:34 PM

[Edited on June 14, 2025 at 1:34 PM. Reason : Free, Free, Free Iran!]

6/14/2025 1:33:25 PM

Alright, look, I'm not Israel's biggest fan these days. Gaza is a crime, Netanyahu is trying to dismantle democracy in his country and in mine, and in general I think the days of unquestioning U.S. government support for the country need to come to a close.

That said, I'm more or less fine with these strikes on Iran. They make geopolitical sense and so far appear targeted enough that the moral dimension is a lot more favorable. (Though I will say, as was the case with some of the actions taken against Hezbollah, this demonstrates that Israel can do very targeted attacks, and just chooses not to do so when it's Palestinians)

So bomb Iran, fine. And I don't want to seem like I'm singling out qntmfred on Israel stuff but, what can I say, he posts about it a lot, and sometimes his posts are bad. For example: Putting up three videos by the ousted crown prince of Iran who might, just maybe, have an unbalanced view of the situatoin (and virtually no support outside of the diaspora community).

The Iranian government is not going to topped. Khamenei's not going anywhere. Well, at least not because of political upheaval...the man is 86 years old, though. If there had ever been a chance that upheaval might happen in the near future, Netanyahu killed it the moment he called for the Iranian people to rise up. This was an almost comically bad decision. There are many people in Iran who do not like Ali Khamenei. All of them like Benjamin Netanyahu way less. Honestly *I* probably like Benjamin Netanyahu less. Khamenei is a world-class asshole but for the most part he keeps his nose out of my country's business.

The diaspora view cannot be taken as a serious barometer for the feeling of the Iranian people, any more than Miami Cubans accurately reflect the attitude of Cuban Cubans. Of course they all hate the Islamic Revolution, it's why they left.

6/15/2025 1:21:09 PM

Thinking outside the box here….Israel completely subjugates Iran. Gives it to the Palestinians.

Peace in the MF Middle East

6/16/2025 10:07:29 AM

^Shias & Sunnis typically don't get along (from what I've heard)

6/16/2025 10:26:32 AM

Quote :

"Iran’s military and political leadership are prepared to give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime, per WSJ"

Iran has never seemed to have an appetite for actually being a nuclear power, they just wanted people to know they could be. I do wonder how far Netanyahu will go though, he’s always wanted to bomb their nuclear infrastructure, so maybe his itch is scratched too.

6/16/2025 1:01:19 PM

^^Obviously I was joking.

^Do you really believe they will?

6/16/2025 2:23:15 PM

^^Doesn't mean much. Given the choice of "enrich uranium" and "continue to exist," yeah, the regime is going to choose the latter. The question is whether the regime gets to the point that it thinks it is under existential threat. Right now it is not. I don't really see how Israeli airstrikes get it to that point. Maybe a boatload of gulf oil money in the right places could put it on the brink but I've not heard of anything like that in the wings.

[Edited on June 16, 2025 at 4:29 PM. Reason : ]

6/16/2025 4:29:11 PM

Man I hope Iran isn't the strongest military in the middle east. I would have never guessed they'd get a beat down like this.

6/16/2025 6:28:22 PM

I can’t wait for Trump to hang a “Mission Accomplished” banner, cram his fat ass in a flight suit, and swoop into Tel Aviv on his Quatari blood loot jet.

6/17/2025 6:46:00 AM

I can't wait for the Iranian people to free themselves from a theocratic dictatorship

6/17/2025 7:00:10 AM

I hope you’re not holding your breath. This situation could just as likely have the opposite effect.

[Edited on June 17, 2025 at 7:24 AM. Reason : I see GrumpyGOP is making the exact same argument a few posts up.]

6/17/2025 7:15:56 AM

im sure today is the day where iran, uh, something something cleanse with burning fire or whatever like they have been threatening for decades.

6/17/2025 7:47:47 AM

Quote :

"Man I hope Iran isn't the strongest military in the middle east."

I'm confused. Why do you hope that?

6/17/2025 8:44:18 AM

^^^The contrast between 1960’s and 1970’s Iran and today are just so stark. I don’t understand why their people keep putting up with the fallout from that revolution.

6/17/2025 9:50:55 AM

I think we all hope this works out better for Iranians and Israelis too. But historically bombing a country into a thriving liberal society has never worked (without massive other investments and authoritarianism).

If Netanyahu continues he’s doomed the region to more instability and probably made things worse for Iranians.

6/17/2025 10:58:27 AM

Quote :

"in general I think the days of unquestioning U.S. government support for the country need to come to a close"

I 100% agree with this. alliance and support is a normal and reasonable aspect of statehood, but it should never be unquestioning and unconditional. we should never stop questioning, about anything. and that includes so many people who unquestioningly believe that Israel is disproportionately let alone solely to blame for the tragedies of the region.

Quote :

"so far appear targeted enough that the moral dimension is a lot more favorable. (Though I will say, as was the case with some of the actions taken against Hezbollah, this demonstrates that Israel can do very targeted attacks, and just chooses not to do so when it's Palestinians)"

thankfully, Israel has been able to be more targeted in their military operations and largely avoided impact to civilians. but let's be clear, that's because the IRGC hasn't spent decades orienting their military infrastructure and strategy around the kind of warfare that hamas has instigated in gaza. it's a lot easier to go after IRGC military targets in Iran without harming civilians because they're NOT embedded in civilian society.

Quote :

"And I don't want to seem like I'm singling out qntmfred on Israel stuff but, what can I say, he posts about it a lot, and sometimes his posts are bad."

I honestly don't mind being "singled out." I'm not hiding from the fact that I think most of y'all have been misled about all of this. I WANT to have this conversation. Just don't malign my intentions.

Quote :

"Putting up three videos by the ousted crown prince of Iran who might, just maybe, have an unbalanced view of the situatoin (and virtually no support outside of the diaspora community)."

That's fine. Of course he has a particular perspective. And it's not like I'm some monarchy enthusiast. But it's at least better than a theocracy, and he's at least spent decades advocating for a democratic iran. so we'll see what the people of Iran choose and I'll cross my fingers that they are the ones who get to choose, and that they choose well.

Quote :

"The Iranian government is not going to topped. Khamenei's not going anywhere."

idk man. seems like a lot of the regime's leadership have gone somewhere lately.

Quote :

"If there had ever been a chance that upheaval might happen in the near future, Netanyahu killed it the moment he called for the Iranian people to rise up. This was an almost comically bad decision."

idk. i'm sure most iranians don't have favorable views of netanyahu or embrace him as a liberator, but at least you can say that he's made it clear on many many occasions over the years and certainly recently that he holds no ill will against the iranian people themselves. unlike khamenei who considers all israelis as complicit and has been shooting ballistic missiles into population centers.

Quote :

"for the most part he keeps his nose out of my country's business"

you might want to re-evaluate this claim

Quote :

"The diaspora view cannot be taken as a serious barometer for the feeling of the Iranian people, any more than Miami Cubans accurately reflect the attitude of Cuban Cubans. Of course they all hate the Islamic Revolution, it's why they left."

sure. i'm not thinking just in terms of diaspora. that's precisely why I said "I can't wait for the Iranian people to free themselves"

Quote :

"I hope you’re not holding your breath. This situation could just as likely have the opposite effect."

holding my breath, no. it's not a certainty by any means that the ayatollah will fall from power. but I do HOPE that it does happen. and yes I know that post-Taliban, post-Saddam, post-Gaddafi, post-Mubarak/Morsi, post-Saleh, etc eras were by no means sunshine and rainbows, but the fall of Khamenei at least gives the people there a CHANCE at a future free from mullah control and their insane religious extremism. and hopefully they'll learn the lessons from those other regimes, and there's good reason to think that Reza Pahlavi is prepared and has an actual plan for a post-Khamenei Iran.

so I will continue to cross my fingers and hope the Islamic Republic of Iran falls.

[Edited on June 17, 2025 at 12:21 PM. Reason : .]

6/17/2025 12:17:51 PM

Huckabee allegedly sent this to trump

Quote :

" Mike Huckabee > Mr President, God spared you in Butler, PA to be the most consequential President in a century-maybe ever. The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice. I am your appointed servant in this land and am available for you but I do not try to get in your presence often because I trust your instincts. No President in my lifetime has been in a position like yours. Not since Truman in 1945. I don't reach out to persuade you. Only to encourage you. I believe you will hear from heaven and that voice is far more important than mine or ANYONE else's. You sent me to Israel to be your eyes, ears and voice and to make sure our flag flies above our embassy. My job is to be the last one to leave. I will not abandon this post. Our flag will NOT come down! You did not seek this moment. This moment sought YOU! It is my honor to serve you! Mike Huckabee"

6/17/2025 2:45:58 PM

Quote :

"it's a lot easier to go after IRGC military targets in Iran without harming civilians because they're NOT embedded in civilian society. "

I had a feeling this argument would come up. Hezbollah was also pretty well embedded in civilian society, and Israel managed to all but decapitate that organization through an operation demonstrating that country's ingenuity when it comes to taking out enemies. I don't doubt that carpet-bombing civilian infrastructure is easier than conducting such an operation, but it's not as though the alternative were impossible. Israel chose a certain strategy in Gaza that it has not pursued in Lebanon, Syria, or Iran. Why? I'll grant that a display of overwhelming force was probably inevitable in the initial response to October 7, but why continue it in the months and years after? Why not do the same to Lebanon/Hezbollah?

I think the answer is pretty clearly that Netanyahu wants to take over one of those places but not the others - or at least, he thinks he can get away with taking over one and not the other. And for him to do that requires the current inhabitants of Gaza to go away. I don't think he particularly wants to kill every man, woman, and child in the region, but he does want them to leave. Levelling the territory has a higher chance of accomplishing that end than a decapitation of Hamas.

Quote :

"But it's at least better than a theocracy, and he's at least spent decades advocating for a democratic iran."

For all I know he's a lovely guy but that doesn't change the fact that he's got no influence, and nothing he says can back up the claim, "It feels like Khamenei's time might be up."

Quote :

"you might want to re-evaluate this claim"

Ali Khamenei has not aligned himself with a major political party in the United States. Benjamin Netanyahu has. Whatever penny ante espionage and lobbying Tehran might do here is peanuts compared to what Israel does. And to be clear, I don't really fault Israel for spying and lobbying. Everyone does that. Where they crossed the line was when Bibi climbed into bed with Trump.

---

Taking a step back to look at the situation and why it is uniquely dangerous (rather than an opportunity for Iran to suddenly engage in regime change):

Iran does want a bomb. And sorry to say, they have good and cogent reasons for wanting a bomb. They've got Russia to their north, Israel to the west, Pakistan to the east, and a ring of U.S. military bases to their south.

We've given them plenty of clear lessons in the value of having a bomb. Kaddafi gave up his program, and we helped see him torn to pieces in a revolution. Saddam didn't manage to get WMD and we invaded his country and killed his family. Kim Jong Il, on the other hand, kept going until he had a nuke. He got to die of old age. His dynasty remained in power. His country can do a test or test an ICBM whenever it feels neglected. Faced with these examples, it doesn't seem like a hard decision to make.

The assumption by a lot of people seems to be that Iran wants the bomb so it can immediately flatten Tel Aviv, and...no, sorry, not buying it. The regime is many things but it is neither stupid nor irrational. It knows that nuclear first use against Israel is suicide. No, Tehran wants nuclear capability to deter would-be invasions and limit Israel's willingness to target it.

Israel also has good and cogent reasons for not wanting an Iranian bomb, naturally. Right now they're the sole nuclear power in the region and there's no reason for them to want to lose that advantage, nor the ability to launch strikes on Iran and its proxies whenever they get squirrelly. If it came down to a nuclear exchange, Iran has some major advantages over Israel - a much bigger population, spread out over much more area. It wouldn't need nearly as many hits to wipe out Israel as Israel would need to wipe out Iran.

Supposedly Iran is now much closer than it has previously been to having enough enriched uranium to build a weapon even as their air defenses are at their weakest. Israel blew up most of those defenses last year and Russia is burning through them too fast in Ukraine to spare any for Iran. So right now Israel pretty much has complete aerial dominance over Iran and can bomb it at will.

Unfortunately for Israel, that dominance means very little when they don't have the capability to destroy the site at Fordow. Fordow is the facility where the most advanced enrichment happens, and it's under a mountain. The only country with the conventional weapons necessary to blow it up is the United States, which has - so far - declined to use these on Iran. That leaves Israel with three options: (1) Nuke Fordow. (2) Some crazy spy shit like with the pagers or the various computer viruses they've used over the years. (3) They don't touch Fordow and hope that some other mechanism reins in Iran's enrichment, like a new agreement with the United States.

That's a scary set of options because I think Netanyahu is way more willing to go through door #1 than I wish he were. And then there's the almost-as-scary implied fourth option, which is that Trump green lights the use of our bunker-busting munitions on the site and thus brings us into a shooting war with Iran. It's hard to see Iran reacting to either of these outcomes with anything short of closing the Straits of Hormuz, which sends oil prices through the roof and implodes the global economy even as we muster massive military assets to reopen them. Which of course draws us away from Asia and the defense of Taiwan and our allies there, which gives China an opening...but really the whole picture gets hazy fast after the closure of the straits.

6/17/2025 3:18:57 PM

^there’s at least one other scenario where the status of Iran’s weapons capabilities doesn’t matter, but bombing them is politically convenient for Netanyahu and Trump. I could see it turning into many separate mini campaigns where Israel just shows up for two weeks and bombs the fuck out of whatever, followed by a few months ceasefire, followed by Israel claiming some new intelligence to justify another campaign, over and over. They could probably sustain that until the end of Trump’s administration.

6/17/2025 3:54:47 PM

So I buy into the second part but not the first. The status of Iran's weapons capabilities definitely matters to all parties, and that's driving at least part of the decision-making. However, I absolutely think the occasional "mow the grass" operation with airstrikes, etc., is something that Israel would keep up whenever it seemed politically expedient.

In fact, that's probably part of the logic behind wanting to ensure Iran doesn't get the bomb. Right now Israel can strike Iran at will, more or less with impunity. The occasional missile will get through their defenses but nothing Israel can't live with. But if Iran might have a bomb, that "occasional missile" is suddenly a much, much bigger threat. It changes the calculus completely and probably stops Israel from hitting Iran, which in turn allows Iran to rebuild its air defenses, which makes it harder still to attack...

6/17/2025 4:10:54 PM

^I’d add that another motivation for a sustained off/on campaign is that it increases the likelihood that “something” happens that pulls the US into the war and triggers your scenario 4. Iran will turn to terrorism, even if that arm is a bit in shambles right now, it’s still probably more effective than anything else they got. And America is a softer target than Israel. Get ready for the big beautiful AI PATRIOT act!

6/17/2025 4:18:46 PM